Two facts governed this week, one on the water and one in the book. In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran declared closure and the United States restated an open, permit-and-blockade posture, and neither declaration matched what the tracking data actually showed: a trickle reduced by roughly two-thirds from its prewar baseline, running dark for close to half its transits, insured at a premium that has grown twentyfold since before the crisis began.